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Government-Parliament Agree on Macroeconomic Assumptions for the 2026 Draft State Budget, Economy Targeted to Grow by 5.4%



Government-Parliament Agree on Macroeconomic Assumptions for the 2026 Draft State Budget, Economy Targeted to Grow by 5.4%

JAKARTA — The government and Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) have officially agreed on the basic macroeconomic assumptions for the 2026 Draft State Budget (RAPBN 2026) in a decision-making meeting held on Friday (22/8).

The meeting was attended by Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Deputy Minister of Finance Anggito Abimanyu, Minister of National Development Planning/Head of Bappenas Rohmat Pambudy, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo, and Chairman of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Board of Commissioners Mahendra Siregar.

Before the decision was made, the Working Committees (Panja) on Growth, Revenue, and Deficit from Commission XI of the DPR each delivered their reports. The government, represented by the Minister of Finance, conveyed its approval of these reports.

“With that, the basic macroeconomic assumptions for the 2026 RAPBN are declared agreed upon,” said Misbakhun, Chairman of Commission XI of the House of Representatives, as quoted from bisnis.com

On that occasion, Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati emphasized that the 2026 RAPBN is not only a fiscal instrument but also serves as a “stabilization anchor” amid global uncertainty. Therefore, the posture of next year’s State Budget will continue to be maintained as credible by balancing the financing needs for the government’s priority programs and fiscal resilience.

“The 2026 State Budget is designed to boost growth, reduce poverty, support economic transformation, and maintain stability. The key message is that the budget remains strong even as development programs continue to expand,” she said.

Details of the 2026 RAPBN Macroeconomic Assumptions

The posture of the 2026 RAPBN is designed based on several key indicators, including:

  • Economic growth: 5.4% (yoy)
  • Inflation: 2.5% (yoy)
  • 10-year government bond yield: 6.9%
  • Exchange rate: IDR 16,500 per US dollar
  • Crude oil price (ICP): USD 70 per barrel
  • Oil lifting: 610 thousand barrels per day
  • Gas lifting: 984 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day

In addition, the 2026 RAPBN also targets:

  • Open unemployment rate: 4.44–4.96%
  • Gini ratio: 0.377–0.380
  • Poverty rate: 6.5–7.5%
  • Formal job creation: 37.95%
     


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