Global Institutions Agree: Indonesia’s 2025 Growth Stalls at 5%
Several international institutions, including the IMF, World Bank, OECD, and UNCTAD, forecast Indonesia's economy to grow by approximately 5% in 2025. The government has set a growth target of 5.2% in the 2025 state budget (APBN), similar to the target set for the previous year. However, as of September 2024, cumulative realization has only reached 5.03%, indicating several challenges in achieving the target.
As quoted from bisnis.com, Deputy Minister of Finance Thomas Djiwandono emphasized that achieving this target largely depends on President Prabowo Subianto’s policies and the government's strategies for attracting new investments in non-mining sectors. These sectors are expected to strengthen household consumption, the primary driver of national economic growth.
“Will we achieve the 5.2% target in the 2025 state budget? Let President Prabowo’s cabinet do its work. What’s important is that we already have a strong foundation,” he said during the 2025 State Budget Media Gathering on Wednesday (25/4).
Projections from Several International Institutions:
- IMF: Projects a 5.1% growth rate, with global inflation expected to decrease to 3.5%.
- World Bank: Predicts economic growth at 5.1%, highlighting risks from geopolitical tensions and opportunities from the recovery of key trading partners.
- OECD: Forecasts economic growth at 5.2%, emphasizing the importance of prudent fiscal and monetary policies.
- UNCTAD: Estimates economic growth at 5.2%, supported by government spending, an increase in the tourism sector, and metal exports such as nickel.
While global economic stability remains a supportive factor, challenges such as geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in structural reforms, and global economic uncertainty persist as threats. The government is expected to diversify economic growth sources and strengthen national economic resilience to sustain growth momentum. (Ken)
